Impact of Climate Change on Phenological Shifts in Rice Cultivation

Abstract

Climate change has emerged as a significant driver of alterations in agricultural systems, particularly affecting crop phenology—the timing of biological events such as flowering, maturity, and harvesting. Rice, being a temperature and water-sensitive crop, is especially vulnerable to these climatic perturbations. This research investigates the influence of rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and altered humidity levels on the phenological stages of rice cultivation across selected regions in India. A combination of field data, historical climate records, and farmer surveys was employed to evaluate changes in sowing dates, flowering periods, grain filling, and maturity durations. Results indicate a consistent advancement in flowering and reduced grain filling period due to increased average temperatures. Delays in monsoon onset further exacerbate yield losses. The study also incorporates farmer perspectives through structured questionnaires to validate observational findings. These phenological shifts have direct implications for rice productivity, varietal suitability, and food security, necessitating climate-resilient farming strategies and adaptive policy interventions.